Perc Pineda, PhD
Chief Economist
The U.S. economy is squarely in the middle of its busiest shopping season, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday already behind us. Early indications point to a strong start: total retail sales on Black Friday rose 4.1% year-over-year, while online sales surged 9.1%.[1] These figures suggest continued consumer resilience heading into the peak holiday period.
However, a clearer picture of overall retail performance will remain delayed. The partial government shutdown that ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025, disrupted the timely release of several key economic indicators, including the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales reports. The most recent advance estimate available is for September, released on November 25, showed retail and food services sales edging up 0.2% month-over-month to $732.1 billion. August’s reading was also revised higher to a 0.6% gain, reaching $733.3 billion. The Census Bureau is currently updating its data-release calendar following the shutdown, and the publication dates for both October and November retail sales remain to be determined.
Mixed market reaction to September retail sales
Initial commentary on the September advanced retail sales data was largely downbeat. Headlines such as “U.S. retail sales growth cools; consumer sentiment sags amid job market worries” and “retail sales lost momentum in September” reflected widespread caution. Others took a more optimistic view, noting that “U.S. retail sales rose slightly in September, adding to months of big gains.” All three interpretations are technically valid at face value. However, from a supply-side perspective—particularly for industries like plastics that serve as inputs to retail—it is critical to look beyond the raw monthly change. The month-over-month percentage change in retail sales is a level change, not a direct measure of momentum. It tells us only how the level shifted from one month to the next and does not reliably capture acceleration or deceleration, which is far more relevant to suppliers.
Three-month momentum:Signs beneath the monthly noise
For the plastics industry, where plastic products and packaging are ubiquitous across retail categories, the three-month smoothed momentum, or moving average, of advance retail sales serves as a particularly useful benchmark. In September 2025, retail sales were approximately 1.4% higher than the average of the prior three months (June–August 2025), providing a clearer short-term trend than the noisy monthly figures. Over a longer horizon, year-over-year growth was a healthier 4.3%. Key plastics end-markets showed similar patterns: motor vehicle and parts dealers (a major consumer of plastics) posted a 5.1% year-over-year gain but a 0.3% month-over-month decline; their three-month smoothed momentum was a more constructive +1.9%. Electronics and appliance stores recorded a 0.5% month-over-month pullback yet a robust 6.3% year-over-year increase, with three-month smoothed momentum at +0.6%. In short, for publicly traded companies that must report and guide on a quarterly basis, focusing on three-month smoothed momentum in retail sales is far more valuable than reacting to any single month’s headline figure. Monthly data are inherently volatile and frequently revised, whereas the quarterly smoothed trend filters out noise, aligns with corporate reporting calendars, and offers management, investors, and suppliers a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand and the likely trajectory of orders in the coming months. Relying primarily on unsmoothed monthly prints risks over- or under-reacting to transitory fluctuations, which can lead to poor capital allocation, inventory decisions, and strategic missteps.
[1]Cable News Network. (2025, November 29). Black Friday sales rise as US shoppers shrug off economic uncertainty. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-economy-spending
Given that two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is personal consumption expenditures, strong…
