Mexico’s Tariff Shift and the U.S. Plastics Trade Advantage

January 15, 2026

Perc Pineda, PhD
Chief Economist

Mexico is the largest export market for the U.S. plastics industry, and the United States has maintained a trade surplus with Mexico for several years. In 2024, Mexico accounted for 26% of total U.S. plastics exports, including resins, products, machinery, and molds. Over the past decade, this share has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 24% and 27%.

The United States recorded another plastics trade surplus with Mexico in 2024, totaling $11.6 billion.[1] By category, the surplus consisted of $7.92 billion in resins, $3.2 billion in plastic products, and $239.2 million and $282.5 million in machinery and molds, respectively. Over the past ten years, the plastics trade surplus has ranged from $8.3 billion to $11.6 billion. However, recent changes in Mexico’s trade and tariff policies present both opportunities and challenges for the U.S. plastics industry.

Mexico’s trade and tariff policy shifts

Effective January 1, Mexico implemented a new tariff regime on imports from countries without free trade agreements. The policy, administered by the Ministry of Economy and approved by Congress in December, raises import duties—up to 35%—across more than 1,400 product categories. These categories span multiple manufacturing sectors, including plastics, automotive, steel, textiles, and consumer goods. The measure aims to protect employment in trade-exposed industries, increase domestic value added within production chains, and support broader industrial development goals.

This upward shift in Mexico’s tariff regime for non-FTA countries has important implications for the United States, particularly for plastics. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada have benefited from free trade since 1994 under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was replaced by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020.

Plastic products imported into Mexico subject to higher tariffs

Of the more than 1,400 product categories affected, 79 are plastic products, identified at the eight-digit level of Mexico’s Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS). [2] Of these 79 products, 31 are subject to tariffs of 25%, and five face tariffs of 35%. Overall, tariff rates range from 5% to 35%, as shown in the accompanying table.

Estimates based on corresponding six-digit U.S. HTS codes indicate that U.S. exports of these products to Mexico totaled $10.8 billion in 2024. Using the same six-digit codes, Mexico imported an estimated $18.7 billion of these plastic products that are now subject to higher tariffs. The United States accounted for 57.6% of Mexico’s imports of these products in 2024.

Mexico has 14 free trade agreements covering more than 50 countries, including the United States and Canada, the European Union, Japan, and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Imports from FTA partners accounted for 75.5% of Mexico’s imports of the 79 affected plastic products. Of this total, countries other than the United States supplied 17.9%. The remaining 24.5% of imports came from non-FTA countries, led by China, which supplied 18.3% of the plastic products now subject to higher tariffs in 2024.

Plastic Products Imported into Mexico from Non-Free Trade Agreement Countries Subject to New Tariff Rates (Effective January 1, 2026)[3]
Mexico HTSTariff RateMexico HTSTariff RateMexico HTSTariff RateMexico HTSTariff Rate
3916100253920300473921140173925300125
3916200353920430353921199173925909925
391690915392049993539219009253926100130
3917100573920510153921909973926209925
391721037392059993539221001253926400130
39172203739206101539222001253926900125
391723045392062021839229099253926900425
391729917392062992539231003253926900635
3917310173920630373923210173926900725
3917329173920699153923299173926900825
391733012539207101739233002353926901125
39173399153920730273923400273926901325
39173999739207991739234099253926901425
39174001739209101739235001253926901525
391810022539209202739239099253926901825
391890912539209401539241001253926901925
3919100173920999173924900173926902725
3919909935392111011539249099253926902925
3920100573921120173925100125392690997
3920200553921130273925200125  

Opportunities and challenges

The higher tariffs on imports from non-FTA countries increase the likelihood of trade diversion toward FTA partners, particularly for plastic products facing tariff rates of 15% or higher. This creates potential opportunities for U.S. processors to expand their share of the Mexican market. Specifically, the $4.6 billion in plastic products imported from non-FTA countries—representing 24.5% of Mexico’s total imports of the 79 affected products—could shift toward FTA suppliers such as the United States.

Although Mexico’s tariff increase is intended to be temporary, U.S. plastics manufacturers with an established presence in Mexico may be well positioned to capture additional business and expand market share.

At the same time, these opportunities may be accompanied by challenges. U.S. plastics manufacturers that export to Mexico from offshore production facilities or subsidiaries located in non-FTA countries could face higher tariffs. Because tariffs are assessed by tariff line and country of origin—defined in plastics manufacturing as the country where substantial transformation occurs—products manufactured in non-FTA countries may not benefit from USMCA preferences.

Taken together, Mexico’s tariff shift creates a clear window of opportunity for U.S. plastics companies to act decisively. Higher duties on non-FTA suppliers increase the competitiveness of U.S.-origin resins, products, machinery, and molds, particularly in product categories now facing tariffs of 15% or more. U.S. firms that already serve the Mexican market can leverage existing customer relationships, proximity, and USMCA preferences to capture business that may be diverted away from higher-cost suppliers. For others, this environment underscores the value of reassessing export strategies, supply chains, and rules-of-origin compliance to ensure eligibility for preferential treatment. While the policy may be temporary, the potential gains are real: timely engagement could translate into lasting market share expansion and a stronger long-term position in the United States’ most important export market for plastics.

[1] Plastics Industry Association, Global Trends 2025 (October 2025). https://www.plasticsindustry.org/data-report/global-trends-2025/

[2] In international trade HTS codes are harmonized across countries at the six-digit level, as set by the World Customs Organization to ensure consistency. The eight-digit HTS codes is used for country-specific tariff and trade purposes primarily to determine U.S. import duty rates and statistical reporting

[3] Tariff rates are based on quantity expressed in kilograms (kg). https://gaceta.diputados.gob.mx/PDF/66/2025/dic/20251209-V.pdfPresidencia de la República. (2025, December 29). Decreto por el que se reforman diversas fracciones arancelarias de la Tarifa de la Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importación y de Exportación (DOF-5777376). Diario Oficial de la Federación. https://dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5777376&fecha=29/12/2025

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