Strong Q1 for U.S. Polyethylene Exports Despite Trade Policy Risks 

Perc Pineda, PhD
Chief Economist, PLASTICS

May 19, 2025 

Global trade in commodities, when measured in dollar value, can show varying degrees of volatility due to currency and price fluctuations. In the first quarter of 2025, the value of U.S. polyethylene (PE) exports—a commodity plastic—increased 2.7% from the previous quarter, while export volume rose 11.6%. 

U.S. Polyethylene Trade Surplus Expands in Q1 

U.S. PE exports totaled over 3.98 billion kilograms in the first quarter—up 11.6% quarter-over-quarter and 5.1% year-over-year. Nearly half (49.8%) of these exports were shipped to five countries—China, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, and Belgium—accounting for 16.4%, 11.4%, 9.1%, 6.7%, and 6.2% of total U.S. PE exports, respectively. Exports to all five countries increased quarter-over-quarter, led by a 31.7% gain in exports to Brazil, followed by increases to Canada (15.3%), China (4.8%), Belgium (2.9%), and Mexico (2.3%). 

At the same time, imports of PE into the U.S. declined. First-quarter imports totaled 882 million kilograms—down 4.4% from the previous quarter and 10.2% lower year-over-year. Three countries—Canada, Mexico, and South Korea—accounted for 93.2% of total imports, with Canada alone supplying 86.7%. Imports from Mexico and South Korea represented 5.0% and 1.5%, respectively. The combination of increased exports and reduced imports resulted in a trade surplus of over 3.0 billion kilograms of PE in the first quarter. 

Tariff Risks Not Yet Reflected in PE Trade 

While first-quarter data showed robust U.S. polyethylene (PE) trade, it does not reflect trends for the remainder of 2025. Ongoing shifts in global trade policy signal potential challenges ahead—especially if current U.S. tariff rates remain high and trade partners retaliate. Canada’s 25% retaliatory tariffs, imposed in response to the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and effective March 13, do not include PE. Moreover, PE trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is covered by the USMCA free trade agreement, helping preserve stable trade flows within North America. 

The United States and the United Kingdom are negotiating an Economic Prosperity Deal aimed at increasing trade and reducing tariffs, while the U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day temporary tariff reduction, as talks continue. In the European Union, the implementation of EU 2025/778—imposing 25% tariffs on U.S. goods, including PE effective April 10—has been delayed until August 14. These developments underscore that U.S. trade policy remains in flux as it continues negotiations with its trade partners. It would be advantageous for more countries to be holding trade talks with the U.S.—given its status as the world’s largest importer of merchandise trade—and the lack of clarity on tariffs, which global markets are experiencing will be resolved.   

Competitive Advantage Holds—for Now 

Despite the trade policy uncertainty, the first-quarter results reaffirm the U.S. plastics industry’s comparative advantage in PE. Backed by abundant feedstock availability, world-scale production capacity, and preferential access through trade agreements, the U.S. remains a competitive global supplier of polyethylene. Barring significant disruptions, that position is unlikely to change in the near term.