Perc Pineda, PhD, Chief Economist, PLASTICS
Tayce Shamamian, Research Assistant, PLASTICS
August 25, 2025
Tracking Trade Post–China’s National Sword
The Plastics Industry Association began tracking trade in recyclable plastic materials for its Recycling Committee members and broader membership soon after China’s National Sword took effect on January 1, 2018, tightening regulations on imports of solid waste, including most recyclable plastics. From 2017 to 2018, recyclable plastics exports to China fell by 88.1% by value and 91.4% by quantity. The ban on many types of post-consumer plastic waste and the 0.5% contamination limit redirected U.S. exports to China toward other countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia. Effective July 1, 2025, Malaysia no longer accepts recyclable plastic materials from countries that are not signatories to the Basel Convention, which currently includes the United States. While this policy could influence trade flows in the future, it is likely that the U.S. will be a net importer of recyclable plastics materials—in value.
U.S. Trade Deficit in the Dollar Value of Recyclable Plastic Materials
The latest release of PLASTICS Recyclable Plastic Materials Quarterly Trade Statistics, covering second-quarter trade data, shows that the U.S. posted a $14.9 million trade deficit in recyclable plastic materials in the first half of 2025. This means the U.S., in dollar terms, was a net importer of recyclable plastic materials. The U.S. has run a trade deficit in these materials for four years; the last surplus occurred in 2020. The deficit reached its highest value in 2022 at $58.6 million and nearly matched that in 2024 at $52.9 million. Last year’s deficit was driven by an increase in PET imports to $48.3 and $53.3 million during Q3 and Q4 respectively. PET accounted for over 50% of import value during those quarters and represented a twofold (2.7) increase in import value from Q2 to Q3.
Source: PLASTICS analysis of U.S.ITC data.
Trade Balance by Quantity
In terms of quantity, the trade balance has remained in surplus but has narrowed alongside the increased use of recycled plastic in U.S. manufacturing. In the first half of 2025, the surplus was 10.6 million kilograms—just 2.9% of total U.S. trade volume in recyclable plastics materials (191.1 million kilograms of exports versus 180.5 million kilograms of imports). The current surplus represents a 78.0% decrease from the year prior, the result of a 36.0% decrease in PET and an 11.3% decrease in other non-PET plastics exports, in addition to a 16.3% increase in PET and 19.6% increase in ethylene imports.
Shifts in Export and Import Trends
Commitments by brand owners to increase recycled plastics content in products and packaging have boosted the use of recycled materials in the domestic plastics value chain, reducing U.S. exports and increasing imports—contributing to the trade deficit. Year to date, exports are down 7.9% in value, driven by steep declines in recyclable PVC and PET exports of 32.2% and 27.8%, respectively. Export volumes fell 12.9%, including a 23.1% drop in PVC and a 36.0% drop in PET, indicating greater domestic recycling of these materials.
Imports, by contrast, increased 23.9% in value in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2024. This included a 40.5% decrease in polystyrene imports but a 40.8% increase in PET imports—underscoring strong U.S. demand for recyclable PET. While making up a small proportion of imports, styrene waste also saw a 43.2% drop in import value and a 40.5% drop in import quantity.
Key Trade Partners
While high tariffs might be expected to affect U.S. imports of recyclable plastic materials, Canada and Mexico remain the United States’ primary trading partners in this category, ranking as the top export markets and import sources in both value and quantity. Together, they account for 54.8% of export value, 57.2% of export quantity, 55.0% of import value, and 67.3% of import quantity. It is likely that trade in recyclable plastic materials meets the regional value content requirement under the USMCA.
Further information regarding recyclable plastics materials trading partners can be found in the full report, available to PLASTICS members, which includes breakdowns by both country and commodity. The latest quarterly Recyclable Plastics Materials Trade Statistics are available on the PLASTICS website at https://www.plasticsindustry.org/resource/recyclable-plastics-materials-quarterly-trade-statistics/.
Plastic materials and resin trade figures for 2023 exhibited a mixed performance compared to 2022.…
